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Statistics Help

**Question: **Explain the methods available Edit

**Answer: **The following are the methods:-

Classification and cataloging of risk

Check list based on previous experience

Team approach - ensure that all risks are identified

Known risks

1. Ranges of possible outcomes that are inherent in the activity must be explicitly or implicitly accounted

for in the estimate

2. High frequency but low severity

3. Contract document is good source for identifying risks (administrative requirements, time

requirement, payment provisions, quality requirements, material requirements)

4. Check that contract terms are fair, clear and equitable that vital causes are present

5. The ideal contract is the one that will be most cost effective through assigning each risk to the party

that is best equipped to manage or minimize that risk recognizing the unique circumstances of the

project

6. Example: Pre-construction planning

a) Congested site

b) Limited site access

c) Competing projects may limit labor availability.

Known-Unknown Risks

1. Neither explicit nor normally expected, but foreseeable and possible

2. Discrete events

3. Low frequency

4. High sensitivity

5. Can be identified from:

a) Checklist developed from experience

b) Reviewing of historical reports on similar past projects

c) Example:

(1) Extreme bad weather(e.g., tornado, hurricane, flood)

(2) Unusual difficulty with client

(3) Extreme adverse labor activity

(4) Sudden labor shortages due to new and competing work activity in project area

(5) Commodity storage due to embargoes and regulatory intervention

Unknown-Unknown risks

1. Unknown - you have to acknowledge their potential

2. Very severe

3. Low probability of occurrence

4. Catastrophic effects

5. Experience might help Edit

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